What does al-Zubaid’s statement mean about the transitional stage for southern independence?

Aidaros al-Zubaid, head of Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council, has re-introduced the southern independence project by announcing a “transitional phase” leading up to the referendum, at a time overwhelmed by the political and military crises ravaging the country.

Although al-Zubaid presented the move as part of the “constitutional declaration” and the road to the referendum, it is closer to a unilateral move by a party in the power structure against that structure, opening the door to legal and political problems with its legitimacy and its ability to be applied on the ground.

What are the steps involved in advertising?

The “constitutional declaration” – to which al-Zubaidi was referring – establishes a two-year transitional phase, which can be extended once, during which an independent state will be established within the borders of the former “People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen”, whose capital is Aden. After the end of the transition stage, it was decided through a general referendum.

The declaration gives the head of state broad powers as the president authorized to “restore the state”, the head of the transitional government and the supreme commander of the armed forces by forming a transitional government and a bicameral legislature (the transitional legislative council and the senate) responsible for enacting laws and approving the transitional budget and legislation.

It also lays out a road map for achieving a permanent constitution through a national committee, then a popular referendum on it, followed by the approval of an electoral law and the organization of parliamentary and presidential elections to complete the transition phase with the president-elect fulfilling his duties under the proposed new constitution.

Does the Constitution allow secession?

Al Jazeera’s Yemen bureau director Saeed Thabet says the Yemeni constitution clearly prohibits any trend towards secession or dismantling.

Thabet noted that the Southern Transitional Council itself was created in 2017 based on this separatist division, but its constitutional legitimacy remains a major question.

On what did al-Zubaid base his statement?

Al-Zubaidi says: “The decision to enter the transition phase (came) based on the popular mandate and national responsibility, and the statements and positions issued by southern state, government and local government leaders and elites.”

Here, al-Zubaidi uses the tools of the Republic of Yemen and its officials to legitimize the move and tries to portray secession as an “administrative measure” resulting from the consensus of local state institutions.

Al-Zubaid did not ignore the subsistence aspect in his speech, but turned it into an important point towards secession, as he spoke of revenue regulation at the central bank in Aden as an “independent authority” that opens the door to gradual financial independence.

Al-Zubaid emphasized that “state institutions must fulfill their duties in improving living conditions and regulating the payment of wages by organizing a revenue collection mechanism in the central bank in the capital, Aden, as an independent central authority.”

Some observers believe the move could mean isolating the south’s oil and tax resources from the Yemeni state’s general treasury, turning the economic file from a simple service to a tool that weakens the south’s ties to the center and brings the idea of ​​secession even closer to a referendum on the ground.

Establishing a completed case

Al-Zubaidi’s statement stated that “the transitional phase ends two years after the date of the declaration (January 2028) and that the constitutional declaration will take effect immediately if the calls presented are not responded to or if the people of the south are subjected to any attack. Thus, it appears that al-Zubaidi is not exclusively committed to the two-year ceiling set by the timetable, but instead establishes something resembling A “penalty condition” that opens the door to activation of separation at any moment.

The phrase “in case of non-response” is a loose formula that gives the Southern Transitional Council broad scope to assess the moment when it considers that the path of negotiations no longer serves its purposes, thus justifying the transition to the step of unilateral declaration of independence.

It could also transform the phrase “constitutional declaration” from a mere regulatory road map into a pressure tool to establish a fait accompli and move the transition phase closer to a “grace period” with other parties responding to transitional conditions rather than a step-by-step negotiated path to a consensual settlement.

Which “South” wants a transitional council?

The constitutional declaration, particularly al-Zubaid’s talk of “restoring the state of the south,” raises key questions related to the nature of the entity the transition party seeks to create, its boundaries, and its political and historical identity.

On this issue, Said Thabet dwelt on what he referred to as the “problem of identity and description” in the Transitional Council’s speech, particularly the importance of “restoring the state of the south,” as the statement put it.

The director of Al Jazeera’s office in Yemen explained that there is more than one historical model for the so-called “state of the south”. The first is the “People’s Republic of South Yemen”, which was later transformed into the “People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen” after independence in 1967, and included the southern and eastern governorates, including Hadramaut and Al-Mahra.

The second is the “Union of South Arabia” project that preceded independence and Hadramaut and Al-Mahra were not part of it. The Yemeni democratic state was later seen in the literature as a “colonial project” and a “treasonous” concept that contradicted the identity of an independent state.

Yemeni government response

On the other hand, Al-Zubaidi’s statement was strongly rejected by the Yemeni government, which saw it as a unilateral move lacking constitutional and legal support and an attempt to impose a new fait accompli in the South within the national consensus.

Abdul Malik al-Mikhlafi, an adviser to the chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council in Yemen, said what he called “Aidaro al-Zubaidi’s new adventure” was “an escape and an attempt to export the crisis instead of bearing its consequences,” given that “the president of the Southern Transitional Council does not have the right to declare a transition period.”

He added in statements to Al Jazeera Mubasher that the Southern Transitional Council is “a small political component that does not represent the issue of the South and does not have the right to make sovereign decisions.”

For his part, the deputy secretary of the Yemeni Ministry of Justice, Faisal al-Majidi, told Al Jazeera that there are “components of Yemen who do not agree with the political declaration of the Southern Transitional Council”, explaining that this declaration “has no legal value”.

He opined that the Transitional Council “knows that no country matters without Hadramaut and Al-Mahra”, warning that what happened in Hadramaut “will create a very big divide on the southern issue”.