The expected “Super El Nino” is threatening the earth.. What will be the consequences for the world and the Arab countries? | Arabic TV
The World Meteorological Organization has announced a very high probability of the continuation of the “El Nino” phenomenon, which is a special and temporary increase in surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and accompanying severe weather and climate disturbances around the world.
Experts hope that this phenomenon will help fuel the rate of global warming the planet is experiencing, largely due to the burning of fossil fuels, which could intensify extreme climate events, from floods and droughts to heat waves.
What is the El Nino phenomenon?
El Nino, or the Southern Oscillation, is one of the most powerful natural climatic phenomena and is caused by changes in sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the increase in water temperature in the central and eastern oceans.
The phenomenon occurs irregularly every two to seven years and usually lasts from 9 months to a full year. It usually starts from March to June, with a peak from November to February.
El Niño’s impact is not limited to its peak period, as its impact on global temperatures extends beyond it and is most pronounced within a year of its formation.
The Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, Celeste Saulo, has warned that the coming “El Niño” phenomenon could be a severe blow to societies and economies, underscoring the organization’s commitment to work with international partners to provide a climate vision that helps manage disasters and supports vital sectors, especially health, energy and agricultural resources.
“El Niño” phenomenon may cause floods or droughts – Getty
Saulo noted that in its nearly 50-year history, the organization had never witnessed such a comprehensive mobilization to protect lives and livelihoods.
Are we facing a Super El Niño?
Regarding the extent of the phenomenon and its consequences, Dr. Jamal Al-Muza, a meteorological advisor to the Arab Weather website, says that expectations point to the possibility of a “Super El Niño” condition, or something stronger than “El Niño.”
Al-Musa explained in an interview with Al-Arabi TV from Amman that the temperature of tropical waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean increases by 0.5 degrees above average in normal El Niño situations, and this year the increase is expected to be about two degrees Celsius, which may explain the severity of the expected climate changes.
What areas are most vulnerable to the effects of El Niño?
According to Al-Musa, the effects of El Niño vary between floods and droughts according to geographic regions.
In the Americas, the regions of the Ecuador basin, Peru and western South America, floods and landslides are expected, in addition to destructive storms in the eastern states of North America.
As for Australia and Indonesia, they may face a marked lack of rain and severe drought, which will affect crops and fisheries.
Drought and lack of water resources in Africa can exacerbate humanitarian crises, including the risk of famine and epidemics.
What about the Arab region?
Regarding the effects of the El Niño phenomenon on the Arab world, Al-Musa explained that the effects differ between the East and the West.
In the eastern Arab world, the phenomenon can be accompanied by high temperatures and heavy rains in autumn, which can cause flash floods and flash floods.
As for the Western Arab world, the region may experience a noticeable decrease in precipitation and relative drought.
Early warning for El Nino
Regarding the possibility of reducing the damage caused by the phenomenon, Al-Musa emphasized that treatment starts with early warning and anticipation of disasters, noting that scientific studies and mathematical models published by international centers give governments and societies the opportunity to prepare.
He emphasized the importance of responding to climate warnings, strengthening infrastructure and developing contingency plans to protect vital sectors and populations, so as to reduce losses from extreme climatic phenomena associated with El Niño.