This paradox poses a crucial question to the visit of US ambassadors Steve Vitkov and Jared Kushner to Moscow: Does this visit open a real window to end the Russia-Ukraine war, or is it a temporary reprieve, after which the two sides return to fighting on tougher terms?
In reading the scene, David Ramadan, a political science professor at George Mason University, said:nineOn Sky News Arabia, Washington is trying to restart the negotiation process, but fundamental differences between Moscow and Kiev continue to prevent a quick settlement.
The Ukrainian file returns to the foreground
Ramadan believes that US President Donald Trump is trying to reopen the Russia-Ukraine track after the Iran crisis has dominated US foreign policy in recent months.
He believes Trump’s choice of his son-in-law and friend, rather than secretary of state or vice president, would fit his personal and informal style of handling sensitive files.
According to Ramadan, the two ambassadors are carrying the idea of a settlement, which they will present to Putin and Zelensky, respectively. This comes after a previous visit, during which the head of the US Central Intelligence Agency talked about the possibility of holding a tripartite meeting in which Trump, Putin and Zelensky would meet.
But Ramadan stressed that no details have yet been released about the content of the proposal, whether from the White House or Witkoff and Kushner, making the mission’s chances of success uncertain.
There is no quid pro quo on Iran
Ramadan denied the existence of an American quid pro quo linking the Iran case to the war in Ukraine and emphasized that Iran has become a “red line” for Washington.
He explained that the information released by the US State Department and the CIA indicates, according to his reading, a clear warning to Russia not to test America’s position on Iran and not to negotiate or make concessions.
He added that any Russian flexibility offered on Iran is aimed at relieving Moscow of additional sanctions and does not represent a trade-off for gains in Ukraine. He noted that the message of the United States of America to Russia and China included a warning that continued support for Iran could be met with a global severance of relations with the dollar.
Donbas settlement junction
On the other hand, field differences still hinder potential agreement. According to Ramadan, Putin is trying to keep at least the lands controlled by his forces, which Ukraine and European countries reject as an occupation that violates international law.
Therefore, Ramadan rules out that Vitkov and Kushner will manage to come up with a “magic solution” that will immediately end the war, but it will make a difference between Donbass and the rest of Ukraine.
He believes that some residents of the Donbass regions consider themselves socially and linguistically Russian, which could make the region a subject of discussion for “realistic and practical” Ukrainian concessions that do not stem from Kiev’s desire. As for the remaining territories, it is unlikely that Washington will be able to convince Ukraine or Europe to cede them.
Economic pressure on Moscow and Kyiv
Ramadan warned of the possibility of the war expanding into a wider confrontation involving Europe, noting that Putin is good at maneuvering because of his intelligence and knows when to enter or exit escalation paths.
He believes that Washington’s strongest card against Moscow is economic, the most important of which is to deprive countries and banks of their relationship to the dollar, which he called the “nuclear option” without nuclear war.
At the same time, the United States has a pressure card on Kiev, because Ukraine still needs large American defense systems, despite its relative sufficiency in marches and small arms. Thus, Washington could use the suspension of purchases as a way to push Kiev to make regional concessions in an effort to reach a final agreement.
